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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Thursday PM Forecast: Late night round of storms, exits in time for weekend

10 minutes 2 seconds ago Thursday, January 30 2025 Jan 30, 2025 January 30, 2025 7:20 PM January 30, 2025 in Forecast Discussion
Source: The Storm Station

Unseasonably warm and muggy conditions have primed the atmosphere for another round of storms. Storms will slide through the area overnight, exiting in time for the weekend.

UPDATE - 7 p.m. Thursday: An area of showers of thunderstorms which has affected south-central Louisiana is clipping parts of Pointe Coupee and West Feliciana Parishes, as well as Wilkinson County. These are moving northeast, and likely will not affect Baton Rouge in the next 1-2 hours. This round of rain is not being depicted well on Futurecast, which means that the model should be used with great caution throughout the remainder of the night. There's a chance these storms have tapped into available moisture and energy for additional storms later in the night. Speaking of which, there is another line of storms taking shape in western Louisiana. That could affect the Capital Area later in the night. There has also been an update to the severe weather outlook - READ MORE in the Tonight section below.

Tonight: Afternoon and evening rain will be followed by a round of thunderstorms later in the night. This round should affect most of the Capital Region. They could roll into the Rouge Metro as early as 10-11 p.m., but will more than likely move in during the 12-4 a.m. timeframe. Areas southeast of the Metro will likely deal with the activity after 2 a.m. before exiting by 6-7 a.m..

With the evening update from the Storm Prediction Center, all are now only under a Level 1/5 "marginal" risk for severe weather. Several severe weather ingredients will be lacking, notably a source of strong lift (a trigger) and instability (storm energy). Storms will struggle to reach severe thresholds as a result, but one or two stronger cells cannot be ruled out. These would be the exception as opposed to the rule. Gusty winds are the main concern, with a non-zero threat for a brief spin-up tornado. Most locations will pick up under a half inch of rain, although up to an inch is possible especially in areas north and west of Baton Rouge.

Tomorrow: Aside from a straggling shower around daybreak, conditions will quickly dry up on Friday as a cold front sweeps through the region. Expect partial clearing with a few few high clouds left over for the afternoon. The cold front will be weak in terms of air mass modification, so don't expect a significant cooldown. Look for a high on Friday in the mid-70s.

Up Next: The weather will cooperate for any outdoor plans over the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday will feature sunny skies with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s. Expect temperatures to return above average next week with highs nearing the 80° mark, if not surpassing it, just about every day. During that time, the Capital Area might find itself in a cycle of mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog followed by partly sunny afternoons with small opportunities for a stray shower.


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-- Meteorologist Malcolm Byron

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